My apologies for the earlier, empty email. The full set of assessments is included below.

Good morning -

Here’s the SITREP for Friday, February 23, 2023

DCDR now covers 67 countries. What are we missing?

Those marked with an * are newly added so please treat these assessments as preliminary

Activity Summary

Correction. There was a typo in yesterday’s ‘flashpoints’ note: ‘nakba was misspelled and this has been corrected in the online version. My apologies

Current Stability Assessments, dated Feb 23 24

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 19 2024 to Feb 22 2024

Countries assessed as 'more turbulent' over the period

🇦🇫 Afghanistan

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Landslide with casualties, electricity drop, lack of consensus on special envoy, Taliban boycott, women's rights prioritization, threats of partition, UN mediation refusal, acute respiratory infections surge, new Taliban decrees, public executions

🇩🇿 Algeria

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
International condemnation of US actions in Gaza, potential for spillover effects on regional stability

🇦🇷 Argentina*

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
High poverty levels, anti-government protests, political tensions over Falkland Islands, economic challenges

🇦🇲 Armenia*

Baseline stability rating: Armenia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Armenia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Azerbaijani call for constitutional change, French weapon delivery to Armenia

🇦🇺 Australia

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased naval expansion amid regional tensions, high-profile leadership changes, extreme weather causing largest-ever blackout

🇧🇷 Brazil

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Diplomatic row with Israel, G20 tensions, and political controversy

🇧🇫 Burkina Faso*

Baseline stability rating: Burkina Faso is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Burkina Faso is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Contributing events that inform this assessment are Political protests, Security force clashes, and Increased terrorist threat

🇧🇮 Burundi*

Baseline stability rating: Burundi is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Burundi is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased political tensions, security force clashes, and public unrest

🇨🇲 Cameroon

Baseline stability rating: Cameroon is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Cameroon is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Ongoing trial for village massacre

🇨🇱 Chile

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Reopening of inquiry into Pablo Neruda's death, Climate change report on wildfire risk

🇨🇳 China

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing tensions with Taiwan, US trade curbs, tech control measures, and international military scrutiny

🇨🇴 Colombia*

Baseline stability rating: Colombia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Colombia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Worsening security situation with multiple killings and crisis in peace talks

🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Protests against neighboring country, resignation of PM, government dissolution, UN sanctions, and regional stability concerns

🇪🇨 Ecuador*

Baseline stability rating: Ecuador is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ecuador is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Government announcement of VAT increase and Julian Assange extradition appeal

🇪🇬 Egypt

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Israeli offensive in Rafah, US envoy visits for hostage talks, Houthi attacks affecting Suez Canal revenue, Al Jazeera journalists' detention

🇪🇪 Estonia*

Baseline stability rating: Estonia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Estonia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased Russian hybrid operations, Sabotage suspects detained, Concerns over Russian speakers, ECHR decision

🇪🇹 Ethiopia

Baseline stability rating: Ethiopia is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ethiopia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing tensions with Somalia over defense deals

🇩🇪 Germany

Baseline stability rating: Germany is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Germany is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Economic woes, postponed state visits, labor issues, and controversial international business practices

🇭🇹 Haiti*

Baseline stability rating: Haiti is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Haiti is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Widespread protests, fuel price hikes, and political unrest

🇮🇪 Ireland

Baseline stability rating: Ireland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ireland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Political tensions over Israel, Northern Ireland deadlock, cross-border finance meeting, measles outbreak, store closures

🇮🇱 Israel

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Intensified conflict with Gaza, US veto on UN truce vote, international criticism, hostage situation, and political tensions

🇮🇹 Italy*

Baseline stability rating: Italy is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Italy is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Repeated trials of Egyptian officials, migrant arrests, and controversial migration deal with Albania

🇯🇴 Jordan

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Threat of extremism, instability, and potential riots due to UNRWA funding crisis; Violent attack in West Bank

🇰🇪 Kenya

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Indictment of high-profile figures, international business deals, immigration discussions, controversial cult case, health risks from antibiotic use, high-profile death and funeral, legal action against foreign company, debt management, and visa policy changes

🇲🇽 Mexico

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Recent events in Mexico indicate a surge in violence near the Texas-Mexico border, ongoing legal actions against US gun-makers, and concerns over public health due to toxic sewage at the US-Mexico border. Additionally, reports of military taking over civilian roles and discussions with Canada on asylum-seeker surge suggest a complex security and governance situation.

🇳🇱 Netherlands

Baseline stability rating: Netherlands is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Netherlands is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Fatal bridge collapse, concerns over China's military technology use

🇳🇿 New Zealand

Baseline stability rating: New Zealand is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in New Zealand is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Death of parliamentarian, airport regulation inquiry, terrorist attack revelation, healthcare staffing issues, child poverty increase, whistleblower sacking

🇳🇪 Niger

Baseline stability rating: Niger is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Niger is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased militant activity and security incidents

🇳🇬 Nigeria

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Currency crisis, economic instability, military actions, regulatory scrutiny on crypto exchanges

🇰🇵 North Korea*

Baseline stability rating: North Korea is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in North Korea is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing international cooperation against North Korean actions, including hacking attempts and missile use in Ukraine, indicating increased scrutiny and pressure

🇵🇰 Pakistan

Baseline stability rating: Pakistan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Pakistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Political crisis with inconclusive coalition government talks, potential re-election amidst poll rigging claims, and disruption of services. Increased security concerns with telecom towers aiding terrorists.

🇵🇦 Panama*

Baseline stability rating: Panama is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Panama is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
First Quantum seeking $20 billion in international arbitration over mine closure, 'going concern' risk, Panama Canal's $8.5 billion pledge for climate resilience, and key services lacking at climate relocation site

🇵🇱 Poland*

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Intensified protests by Polish farmers, concerns over external influence, political tensions within EU, and military activities near Russian border

🇷🇺 Russia

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Navalny poisoning accusations, major sanctions threats, international military ties, and growing discontent

🇸🇳 Senegal

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Protests over election delay, prisoner releases, and political pressure

🇷🇸 Serbia

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing tensions over international alliances, environmental concerns, and migrant issues

🇿🇦 South Africa

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing tensions over Israel-Palestine accusations, economic concerns, election preparations, and judicial impeachment proceedings

🇰🇷 South Korea*

Baseline stability rating: South Korea is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Korea is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Doctors' walkout affecting healthcare, international discussions on North Korea, strained US-North Korea relations

🇪🇸 Spain*

Baseline stability rating: Spain is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Spain is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Suspicious death of Russian defector, international political tensions, and economic sabotage

🇸🇩 Sudan

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Reports of 8 million people displaced and desperate for aid, international involvement in peace efforts, and geopolitical influence competition

🇸🇪 Sweden*

Baseline stability rating: Sweden is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sweden is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing concerns over Russia's actions and Sweden's NATO bid vote

🇨🇭 Switzerland

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
International law enforcement operation disrupts cyber ransom gang's operations, ECHR upholds racial profiling complaint against Switzerland, Crackdown on attempts to evade Russian sanctions

🇸🇾 Syria

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Frequent Israeli airstrikes, US-led coalition airspace violations, and high casualty rates

🇹🇼 Taiwan*

Baseline stability rating: Taiwan is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Taiwan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased U.S. delegation visits and support, but growing skepticism over U.S. reliability

🇹🇷 Turkey

Baseline stability rating: Turkey is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Turkey is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased economic uncertainty and geopolitical involvement

🇺🇦 Ukraine

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased international support but heightened conflict and espionage activities

🇺🇸 United States

Baseline stability rating: United States is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United States is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Protests over racial injustice, political tensions, and COVID-19 impact

🇻🇪 Venezuela*

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Russian support for Maduro regime, collapse of illegal gold mine, abduction of Venezuelan military refugee

🇻🇳 Vietnam

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing concerns over environmental disasters, high-profile corruption cases, and potential economic challenges

🇾🇪 Yemen

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Sustained Houthi attacks on ships and US drones, increased regional tensions, and potential impact on Red Sea shipping

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe*

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Economic crisis likened to war, UN official's controversial suggestion, media warning on corruption, emergency polio vaccination drive

Countries assessed as 'more calm' over the period

No countries were assessed as being more calm for this period.

Countries assessed as 'unchanged' over the period

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan*

Baseline stability rating: Azerbaijan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Azerbaijan is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Positive international cooperation and focus on energy sector development

🇨🇦 Canada*

Baseline stability rating: Canada is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Canada is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
No significant events indicating short-term instability

🇩🇰 Denmark*

Baseline stability rating: Denmark is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Denmark is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
No significant events impacting short-term stability

🇫🇷 France

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Diverse international engagements and diplomatic efforts, internal protests among farmers, and ongoing debate over antisemitism and Islamophobia

🇬🇷 Greece*

Baseline stability rating: Greece is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Greece is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Positive discussions on economic engagement and cooperation in combating terrorism with India, but isolated anarchist group claim of planned parcel bomb attack

🇮🇳 India

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Diverse international engagements and economic activities

🇮🇩 Indonesia

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
No direct impact of recent events on short-term stability

🇯🇵 Japan*

Baseline stability rating: Japan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Japan is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Stable economic indicators, high tourism levels, diplomatic engagements with regional partners, isolated security incident

🇲🇾 Malaysia

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Stable stock market performance, diplomatic engagements, economic concerns, and anti-corruption efforts

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Diverse investment agreements and economic collaborations, coupled with oil export challenges post-OPEC cuts

🇸🇬 Singapore

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased international trade and collaboration at Singapore Airshow, concerns over brain drain, mixed regional stock performance, and ongoing border control issues

🇹🇭 Thailand

Baseline stability rating: Thailand is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Thailand is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Diverse economic initiatives and political developments alongside isolated security concerns

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Potential positive impact of UAE's exit from dirty money list, regional security concerns with Houthi attacks, and growing focus on climate action

🇿🇲 Zambia

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Economic support from WB, GMO concerns, and potential health impact of droughts

--End of report--

Have a great weekend and I’ll see you on Monday

~Andrew

Your feedback and support mean a lot: please share your thoughts (via the poll) and the newsletter (via the link).

Thank you 🙏