Good morning.

Welcome to the SITREP for March 5th, 2024.

As promised, I’m going to try to add some more analysis in addition to the country stability reports. So here are three hot takes on Yemen, Venezuela —Guyana, and Israel — Gaza.

Houthis Sink First Ship Following Months of Attacks

🇾🇪 Yemen / Red Sea

DCDR Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

MV Rubymar, a Belize-flagged, UK-owned bulk carrier, sank over the weekend, three weeks after being attacked off the coast of Yemen. The vessel was carrying 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer, which is now leaking into the sea along with her supply of fuel oil, which is causing a reported 30 km-long oil slick in the narrow waterway.

On Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM) noted that not only is the MV Rubymar an environmental hazard, but she now presents a serious maritime hazard for vessels in the shallow waters of the Red Sea. (CENTCOM via X)

Meanwhile, The Houthis show no sign of letting up. Hussein al-Ezzi, deputy foreign minister in the Houthi-led government, said in a post on X. "Yemen will continue to sink more British ships, and any repercussions or other damages will be added to Britain's bill...It is a rogue state that attacks Yemen and partners with America in sponsoring ongoing crimes against civilians in Gaza." via Marine Link

DCDR Analysis

• Supply chain delays will continue for the mid-term, and businesses should plan to maintain whatever contingencies they have in place through late Q2 or early Q3 of 2024.

• Vessels should continue to avoid this area, no matter what assurances they may have or whatever protection is on board. The attack of a Marshall Island-flagged vessel, reportedly headed to Iran — The Houthis main backer — indicates that no vessels can be considered truly safe.

Venezuelan, Guyanan Leaders Meet, But Tensions over Essequibo Remain

🇬🇾 Guyana

DCDR Baseline stability rating: Guyana is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Guyana is more turbulent than usual

🇻🇪 Venezuela

DCDR Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

In the space of three years, Guyana has gone from pumping 0 barrels of oil per day to exporting a peak of 637,000 barrels on January 31st (Bloomberg). This is in contrast to neighbor Venezuela, where production has dropped from highs of around 2,394,020 bopd in 2008 to around 600,000 today due to a combination of mismanagement and sanctions.

However, the different fortunes in the oil field have produced more than envious looks in Caracas and have reignited Venezualea's claims on the Essequibo territory in Guyana's west. The Essequibo is almost 75% of Gyuana's landmass and has been disputed for over a century (Wikipedia).

Recent troop movements and more stringent rhetoric from Venezuelan President Maduro — coincidental to the increased oil production in Guyana — have alarmed the government of Guyana and other observers. The two leaders met at the summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), at which President Maduro also announced elections in Venezuela would take place in the second half of 2024. (Forbes)

DCDR Analysis

• Venezuela under Maduro continues to struggle financially, and finding a nearby scapegoat to blame for some of Venzeual's issues is an easy way to divert some attention. It is unlikely that Venezuela will attempt to seize Essequibo with force, but there is always the possibility of a miscalculation when troops are deployed.

• Venezuela may also be trying to exert some pressure on Guyana or other regional powers to extract concessions from other CELAC members.

• How Maduro fairs in the polls leading to the upcoming elections could affect the situation over Essaquibo. It is easy to see how poor polling could lead to Maduro trying to project strength by 'standing up' to a neighbor. 

Chances of a Ramadan Ceasefire in Gaza Slipping

🇮🇱 Israel

DCDR Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

🇵🇸 Gaza

Palestine / Gaza is not currently rated

Israel's deadline of March 10th for the release of all remaining hostages is less than a week away, but ceasefire talks have stalled. Hamas claims it is impossible to provide a list of remaining hostages while Israeli military operations continue, but Israel has refused to continue with peace talks without the list and other critical information. So, while meetings continue in Cairo with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, Israel is absent, and it is not clear what will bring them back to the table. (BBC)

If Israel sticks to its March 10th timetable, the IDF push in Rafah would coincide with the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan.

Meanwhile — difficult though it is to imagine — the humanitarian situation in Gaza has become increasingly worse. By all accounts, the medical system has collapsed, food is scarce, with alarming reports of children dying of malnutrition, and civilian casualties continue to mount as IDF operations take place in an increasingly condensed area. 

DCDR Analysis

• The DCDR assessment of the situation from February 22nd stands with the caveat that the chances of a ceasefire seem much more remote.

• The attacks of October 7th and the subsequent treatment of hostages by Hamas were and are horrific. However, these atrocities don't excuse what appears to be increasing breaches of the Geneva Convention —much of which seems to be documented by the IDF or soldiers themselves. This will have long-term repercussions for the Israeli military and individual soldiers alike.

• The US-Israel relationship feels increasingly fragile as Prime Minister Netanyahu ignores growing calls for restraint from President Biden and his administration (Guardian). The US won't abandon Israel, but the chances are that support will be more conditional.

That’s all for these quick takes. Please let me know if you find these useful, and don’t forget: you can still access the full country stability ratings from the DCDR app front page at app.dcdr.io 

~Andrew