Good morning.

💕 Happy Valentine's Day 💕

It's a slightly different intro today because I've some exciting news to share.

I know, I know. Every email you get starts with someone saying how excited they are: excited that you signed up for free coupons, excited that you joined an exclusive group of only 3,289,000 other professions, excited that you chose their firm to clean your windows, etc., etc.

I get it.

But I can say that I'm genuinely excited as I write this for three reasons:

1. I've had five cups of coffee, and it's only 10:00 am.

2. I've been building this for almost 20 years.

3. I think this is a genuine game-changer for decision-makers.

But first...

If you don't like data, this isn't for you. (I mean...)

And if you don't have to decide what your organization should do next, this isn't for you either, so you can stop reading and skip to the metrics.

However,

• If you do want decision-making data, then read on.

• And if you want to get back several hours of your time each week, then you should definitely stick around.

• (And if the charts in the reports send a frisson of excitement down your leg, you may want to sit down.)

Here goes.

After a couple of months, the Daily SITREP is bedded in, so it's time to get the real project underway.

Because the daily metrics and commentary are only part of the plan.

These are valuable bits of planning data that help put things into context, but the real value isn't in the metrics or the commentary. The real value is knowing what the metrics and commentary mean for you and your organization.

That's where the customized SITREPS come in.

You'll still get the daily emails in full, but you also get the customized daily risk reports. These take the regular SITREP information and put that into context for you.

You mean I can get a custom email like this every day, Dad?

Yes, you can, Son. Yes you can.

So instead of looking at the information and wondering, 'what does that mean for me?', you'll get an update that tells you what the changes mean for your organization, whether your risks have increased, or maybe an opportunity has emerged. And you'll be reminded of whatever contingencies you've established for that event.

So if you've stuck around this far but don't care about these things, don't worry: you'll still get a short version of the SITREP daily and the weekly wrap-up on a Friday.

But if you do have to make decisions, and want to save time figuring out what the data means for you, sign up for customized SITREPs to get:

• Full daily SITREPS with all the data and analysis

• Customized risk data for your organization

• In-depth research reports.

So if you want custom SITREPS for your organization, you can start a 7-day trial of the custom SITREPS here.

A PRO plan will get you customized risk data for your organization plus the full daily SITREPS with all the data and analysis and in-depth research reports.

But most of all, it will give you clarity:

• Clarity about the risks you face.

• Clarity of the opportunities that you have.

• Clarity about the decisions you need to make.

And that's what makes it game-changing.

Sign up for a PRO trial here.

On to the numbers.

(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There's a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user's guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)

Relative Values (90-Days)

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Trends (21-days)

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Brent Crude

Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.

Brent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.

Iron and Steel

Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.

Iron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.

Market Volatility (VIX-US)

Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.

Market Volatility (VIX) is low for this 90-day interval. The index increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.

Wheat

Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous & noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.

Wheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.

Ocean Freight (FBX)

Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.

Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.

Up-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos

Election Watch

• February 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate

Palate cleanser

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