1,800 words / 7-9 minutes of goodness

This brief started out as a note on supply chain interruptions but, after two months, these disruptions are somewhat baked into everyone’s short-term planning. There is or was a three- to six-ish week interruption rippling through the affected supply chains which you can roughly assess as follows:

• West / North Europe / West Med - Moderate to significant interruption

• Mid and Eastern Mediterranean - Significant interruption

• US East Coast - Limited interruption

I had the DCDR agents sum up the implications and considerations when the attacks started and the basic assumptions and observations still hold but there’s also a more up-to-date Bloomberg article here.

(I’ve been very open about my love of containers, so I’ll return to supply chains soon, particularly when we have a better idea of how things evolve over time. )

However, what I noticed was that getting much less coverage are the ‘second-order’ effects of the attacks. And beyond the impact on European supply chains, there are several other implications, some of which might have much bigger ramifications.

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BLUF

• Grain exports are the second largest cargo transiting North - South via the canal. Cargoes are already reduced because of the war in Ukraine and Russian blockades. Now these will also be delayed.

• Imports of food and aid to Sudan are being affected. Sudan already faces a complex emergency with respect to food insecurity and any sustained interruption could tip the country into a full-on catastrophe.

• Egypt is facing a series of series issues. Reduced income from Suez transits significantly hurt foreign currency income; increased grain prices hurt currency reserves because of bread subsidies; and the war in Gaza is placing increasing pressure on the country.

(*Bottom line up front - a grown-up way to say TL;DR)

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