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- DCDR SITREP for Friday, Feb 2 2023
Good morning and Happy Friday!
Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, Feb 2 2023
As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.
(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)
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Heads Up: Upcoming US Strikes in Iraq and Syria
Just before we get to the stability ratings, note that the US has sanctioned retaliatory strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria following last week’s deadly attack on a US base in Jordan.
I’m flagging these now because there is a good chance that these will take place over the weekend and may be misconstrued as a further escalation of things in the Middle East.
However, rather than an escalation, announcing strikes in advance suggests Washington is taking a carefully planned, well-choreographed approach to retaliation, allowing the US to respond without further exacerbating things in the region.
Both Washington and Tehran are concerned about the tension in the region, and — strange as it may seem — these strikes might release a little pressure and allow both countries to pull back a little.
TL;DR - US strikes in Iraq or Syria this weekend are not the start of WWIII.