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- DCDR SITREP for February 9 2024
Good morning and Happy Friday!
Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, February 9 2024
🎉
Great news! We’re now at 35 countries so over 1/3 of the way to the aim of hitting 100 by the end of Q1.
Have a particular interest? Let me know which countries you’d like to see added first
On with the show
As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.
(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)
If you missed it, Thursday’s post was a PRO research report taking an in-depth look at rare earth minerals and essential elements.
Five takeaways:
1️⃣ REMs and other critical elements are highly concentrated in a few countries.
2️⃣ The vast majority of the production comes from areas with some degree of geopolitical instability, human rights issues or environmental carelessness. (Some overachievers have all three.)
3️⃣ There are large deposits in other places but these are currently trapped by a lack of infrastructure to support extraction or, in the case of the US, legislative entanglement.
4️⃣ Alongside supply chain risks, the non-operational threats to businesses are not dissimilar to those from fast fashion or, going back a bit, blood diamonds. So, even those well-removed from the mine site may well have mining-related threats in their portfolio.
5️⃣ A lot of the biggest issues are problems we know how to solve. So things like ethical extraction, supporting and respecting local communities, and environmental stewardship are all things we can do; it's more a matter of being willing.
(And look out for more next week about the PRO reports and other premium benefits)
Current Stability Assessments, dated Feb 8, 2024
These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 05 2024 to Feb 08 2024Note that this reports includes several countries that were recently added to the database. This means that the model is still 'learning' these countries so assessments may not be as accurate. These countries are amrked with an *
Countries assessed as 'more turbulent' over the period
Afghanistan*
Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Closure of border crossings, expulsion of Afghan migrants, surge in violence during Pakistan elections, growing challenges for women journalists
Argentina
Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing controversy over embassy move to Jerusalem, economic reform setbacks, and international criticism
Brazil
Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing dengue outbreak prompting emergency health measures, political tensions with police actions against Bolsonaro allies
Chile*
Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Former President's tragic death, devastating wildfires, international aid response
China
Baseline stability rating: China is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased international tensions and trade pressures, stock market volatility, and regional geopolitical developments
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Escalating conflict in Eastern DR Congo, threat to city of Goma, and foreign casualties
Egypt
Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Intensifying Israel-Gaza conflict, high-level diplomatic efforts, potential ground offensive, and economic aid measures
France
Baseline stability rating: France is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Controversial tribute to Hamas pogrom victims, international criticism over stance on Ukraine, and high-profile security concerns
India
Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Heightened security concerns in Myanmar, major economic shifts, and international cooperation in energy and defense sectors
Indonesia*
Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Upcoming presidential election triggering economic concerns, muted stance on China dependence, and generative AI test amid voting fears
Israel*
Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
French warning of potential war, US aid bill challenges, Hamas truce negotiations, ICJ presidency, mixed international reactions, cultural events
Jordan*
Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased regional tensions and potential spillover effects from Iraq
Kenya
Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Cult leader charged with murder, fatal hyena attack, smuggling arrests, and fugitive escape
Poland
Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Deployment of military, controversial migrant 'pushbacks' data, upcoming farmers strike, and conflicting court rulings affecting MPs' security
Russia*
Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
US-Russia clashes over North Korea and Ukraine, reports of Russian missile launches in Ukraine, potential EU sanctions on Russian military officers, and UN calls to end forcible transfer of Ukrainian children
Senegal*
Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Political unrest over delayed election, international pressure, growing civil unrest, and internet restrictions
Serbia*
Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Kosovo's actions, EU lawmakers' concerns, and international football approval
Singapore
Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Increased racial discrimination probes, high-profile legal cases, and corruption charges
South Africa
Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Tensions with Nigeria over soccer match, opposition party boycott, economic challenges in manufacturing sector, and international trade concerns
Sudan
Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Escalating violence near disputed border, attempted coup, internet blackout, humanitarian crisis, and UN appeals for aid
Switzerland
Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Growing international tensions, economic concerns, and seismic activity raise short-term stability issues
Syria
Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
US airstrikes, international accusations, regional tensions, attacks on civilians, and growing risk of errors
Ukraine
Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Escalation of Russian attacks, Senate Republicans blocking US aid, International support for Ukraine, Use of mercenaries in conflict
Venezuela*
Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Potential impact of revived US sanctions on oil industry, territorial disputes with ExxonMobil's exploration, and electoral manipulation preparations
Yemen
Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Appointment of new Prime Minister, multiple attacks on ships, US and UK military strikes, threats from Houthi rebels
Countries assessed as 'more calm' over the period
Nigeria
Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more calm than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Positive public sentiment around sports, law enforcement actions against criminal activities, and international diplomatic engagements
Countries assessed as 'unchanged' over the period
Algeria
Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
No significant changes in stability indicators
Australia*
Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
No significant events impacting short-term stability
Malaysia*
Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Stable economic indicators, healthcare investment, arrest and deportation of murder suspect, mixed performance of stock market
Mexico
Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Stable economic indicators and ongoing reform plans by the president
Saudi Arabia
Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Economic deals and military cooperation with international partners, reaffirmation of stance on Israel-Palestine relations, and ongoing regional security discussions
United Arab Emirates
Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
No direct impact on UAE stability from regional defense deals and diplomatic statements
Vietnam
Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Stable economic indicators despite regional trade challenges, push for cashless payments, and ongoing legal proceedings against business figures
Zambia*
Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Positive developments in debt restructuring, economic activities, and mining sector offset by exam center suspension and telecom regulatory action
Zimbabwe*
Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include:
Government's move to abolish death penalty, economic stabilization measures
--End of report--
That’s it for this week - see you again on Monday for the updated SITREPs plus a few new reporting tools I want to share to help you quickly identify and assess your risks.
🚀
~Andrew
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